Improving of approach to ecological monitoring of objects of hydrosphere of industrial and agricultural developed region by analysis of time trends of indicators of technogenic pollution of surface waters on example of Sumy region
V. Brook, S. Kovalenko
Received: 25 September 2019
Accepted: 16 October 2019
Published: 29 November 2019
The purpose of the study, the results of which are described in this article, is to obtain numerical characteristics of the time trends of pollution of the main objects of water resources of Sumy region by industrial enterprises, objects of housing and communal services, as well objects of agro-industrial complex, for environmental monitoring as basics of indirect assessment of the industrial potential of the region. The object of the study is the ecological status of surface waters of Sumy region as an indicator of its industrial potential. The subject of the study is the time trends in the quantitative characteristics of the research object. The study analyzes the scientific, technical and reference literature on methods of environmental monitoring of urbanized regions with significant industrial, agro-technical potential of developed countries of the world. Using GIS technologies, the distribution of the main hydrosphere objects, their pollutants, potential sites of their monitoring in Sumy region was analyzed and maps were constructed. Based on the chemical analysis of water samples, the average pollution levels of these water bodies were obtained. A statistical analysis of the time trends of these indicators over the past 10 years was performed using the Holt-Winters method. Indicators of significance of the obtained numerical characteristics of time trends indicate the accuracy of the forecasting results. According to the results of such analysis, an indirect estimation of the time trends of the industrial potential of the indicated region was made. Thus, the approach to forecasting long-term trends in the ecological status of surface waters as part of the environmental monitoring of a region with a high degree of industrial and agricultural development based on GIS technologies and the Holt-Winters method has been further developed. The obtained quantitative and qualitative characteristics of time trends of ecological status of surface waters are suitable for indirect estimation of trends of industrial development status of the administrative-territorial unit of the state. The analysis of the obtained data showed that the industrial potential of Sumy region during the indicated period tends to decrease, however, there was a slight increase in the pollution of some rivers by some types of pollutants, which may be explained by the re-profiling of the polluting enterprises.
Key words: surface waters, Holt-Winters method, environmental monitoring, significance, time trend, pollutants, industrial potential.
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