THEORY AND PRACTICE OF DEVELOPING AN INTEGRATED MODEL FOR ASSESSING SOIL AND GROUNDWATER POLLUTION IN AFFECTED AREAS
Rashkevich Nina
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine, Cherkasy, Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5124-6068
Krasnov Viacheslav
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine, Cherkasy, Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8445-6843
Rashkevych Oleksandr
Main Department of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Kharkiv Region
https://orcid.org/0009-0005-4374-4602
DOI: 10.52363/2522-1892.2025.2.3
Key words: soil pollution, groundwater pollution, assessment index, technogenic hazard, transition to critical state, physiological effect
Abstract
The article provides a description of a developed index model that enables a quantitative assessment of the probability of an ecosystem shifting to a critical state as a result of soil and groundwater pollution in areas affected by rocket and artillery system strikes. The model makes it possible to account for the complex influence of environmental factors on the migration patterns of pollutants in geomediums and the consequences of their impact on public health.
The object of research is the processes of soil and groundwater pollution caused by military actions. The subject of research is the assessment of the degree of technogenic pressure on ecosystems according to the nature of physiological effects (subacute or prolonged) on the human body through the combined impact of environmental factors.
A system of seven assessment indices is proposed, covering military load, geological and hydrological vulnerability, meteorological acceleration, territorial sensitivity, the state of critical infrastructure, and population vulnerability. For each index, analytical dependencies have been developed based on normalized factors and weighting coefficients. The significance of the indices was determined using an expert-analytical approach with a modified Delphi method.
The model provides an integral assessment of ecological imbalance, enables spatial zoning of territories, identification of critical zones, prediction of the type of physiological effect, and substantiation of priority monitoring measures. Based on model calculations, the positions of target response strategies to hazards are defined, and measures for minimizing their consequences for the population and the environment are established.
The developed model is presented in the form of an analytical expression, characterized by flexibility and adaptability to various scenarios of hazard occurrence and spread. The practical value of the model lies in its potential integration into environmental monitoring systems and the design of technogenic hazard response systems. The proposed model is advisable for use in decision-making systems during the post-war recovery of territories.
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