DETERMINATION OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE WATER ECOSYSTEMS OF THE UDY AND OSKIL RIVERS IN KHARKIV REGION
Rybalova Olga
National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine, Kharkiv, Ukraine
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8798-4780
Artemiev Sergey
National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine, Kharkiv, Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4535-1990
Bryhada Olena
National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine, Kharkiv, Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5777-8516
Ilinskyi Oleksii
National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine, Kharkiv, Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1737-9462
Bondarenko Alexander
National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine, Kharkiv, Ukraine
DOI: 10.52363/2522-1892.2022.2.7
Keywords: climate changes, aquatic ecosystems, forecast, Holt-Winters model, Kharkiv region
Abstract
The paper assesses the ecological state of the Udy and Oskil rivers and investigates changes in climatic indicators in the Kharkiv region by building predictive models using the Holt-Winters method based on data collected before the start of russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine. On the basis of multifactorial correlation-regression analysis, the factors that have the greatest influence on the ecological state of the Oskil and Udy rivers have been determined. Determination of correlational dependencies is aimed at the implementation of preventive adaptive measures. The results of the study can be used in the determination of priority problems and the scientific justification of water protection measures, as well as the possibility of isolating and identifying the impact of military actions by hydrochemical and hydrological indicators of the qualitative state of surface waters, by the difference between predicted and actual data, which is the practical significance of the work.
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