MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTING CHANGES IN THE ECOLOGICAL STATE OF SURFACE WATER BODIES, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE IMPACT OF UPSTREAM TRIBUTARIES
Kovalenko Svitlana
National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine, Cherkasy, Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2323-0856
DOI: 10.52363/2522-1892.2024.2.7
Key words: surface water bodies, ecological status, basin management principle, chloride and sulphate content, impact of tributaries on water quality
Abstract
The article investigates the impact of surface water bodies in the sub-basins of the Dnipro River, particularly the influence of an upstream tributary on the ecological status of the main downstream river. Such research is essential to identify factors affecting the water composition of rivers and to assess the ecological status of surface water bodies, including left tributaries of the Dnipro, such as the Desna, Sula, Psel, Vorskla, and Samara. The study aims to determine the impact of the left tributaries of the Dnipro on the water quality of surface water bodies within the sub-basins, in order to identify the primary sources of their ecological deterioration. The object of the study is the surface water bodies (the left tributaries of the Dnipro – the Desna, Sula, Psel, Vorskla, and Samara rivers). The subject of the study is the impact of the upstream left tributaries of the Dnipro on the downstream ones on changes in their ecological status within the sub-basins. The scientific novelty lies in the development of a mathematical model for predicting changes in the ecological status of surface water bodies within a sub-basin, taking into account the influence of upstream tributaries. The obtained research results for the Desna, Sula, Psel, Vorskla, and Samara tributaries, based on the constructed isolines, confirm the influence of upstream tributaries on downstream ones at observation posts. It has been established that the influence of upstream tributaries on those located downstream follows an exponential law. The developed mathematical model allows for predicting the impact of upstream tributaries on downstream ones. The results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov criterion calculations indicate that the proposed model for predicting the ecological status of surface water bodies in the Dnipro sub-basins is reliable and effective and can be implemented in risk assessments for natural and man-made emergency situations.
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